The 2023-24 NFL season has officially ended with the conclusion of Super Bowl 58. With that, the discussions of what the Bears will do off-season will continue to increase. The Bears have the #1 pick in the draft for the second year in a row, through the 2024 1st round pick that North Carolina included in the D.J. Moore trade after the Panthers finished the season 2-15. The Bears also have the #9 pick in the draft after finishing the season 7-10, which has many people speculating on what the Bears will do in the draft. Will the Bears draft Caleb Williams? Will the Bears keep Justin Fields and draft Marvin Harrison Jr.? As of right now, the rumor mill continues to run high for the Bears and will continue to be that way until the 2024 draft. With that being said, let’s dive into the different factors that the Bears will have to consider when deciding what to do with that #1 pick:
The Result of the 2023 Season
To say that this Bears season has been a rollercoaster of a season would be an understatement. The Bears finished the season 7-10, which I thought was realistic, however the path to getting that 7-10 record was something that I don’t think anyone really expected. The Bears started off the season 0-4 with losses that included blowing big leads against the Buccaneers and the Broncos. During this 4 loss span, the Bears offense and defense were not clicking, however there were little sparks of what the team could look like if they started to figure things out. Justin Fields had a passer rating of 86.8 with 861 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions during that timespan. This put Bears fans, including myself, of going through the 5 stages of grief for the first half of the season. With the amount of expectations going into the season, the Bears were expected to be on the rise in 2023, which was not the case for the first half of the season. The momentum started to change when the Bears had a surprising win against the Commanders at the beginning of October. From this point, the Bears offense looked much better, and while it did not lead to that many wins, there was great improvement through the second half of the season. The bears defense were able to make things click and force turnovers, which helped the Bears look like a much improved team, but ultimately had a 7-10 record, ending with what seemed to be a franchise-changing loss to the Packers as the Bears could’ve had the chance to eliminate the Packers from the playoffs, and it seemed like a win would make Justin Fields the absolute starter for the future. However with that loss, the starting QB for the Bears in 2024 is simply a big question mark.
A Money Situation
Another important factor that the Bears will have to think about when deciding what to do with the 1st pick is how much of the cap space are they willing to use when paying for a QB? If the Bears decide to take Caleb Williams with the 1st pick, they would only have to pay a standard rookie contract, which is roughly 12-41 million for 4 years, and if the Bears decide to keep Justin Fields, they would have to potentially pay him a maximum of 45 million per year as Fields is eligible for a contract extension next off-season. Is Fields worth 45 million a year? That is something that Bears management would have to figure out because on one hand, if the Bears take Caleb Williams, they will still have a good amount of money left to use to then build around Caleb Williams. If the Bears go through the route of paying Justin Fields a max contract, that puts them in a place to still build around Fields, but have a little bit of a leash when it comes to acquiring talent. The Bears currently have the 3rd most amount of cap space in the NFL with about 79 million, and they still have to pay Jaylon Johnson the bag that he deserves.
The Talent in the Draft
This is probably the biggest factor that will help the Bears decide what route they will take when using the 1st overall pick in this year’s draft. Caleb Williams is looking like the next big star after his career with USC, and is looking like an even better prospect than Patrick Mahomes was coming out of college. Caleb Williams is the consensus #1 overall pick in the draft this year, and while the Bears have the option of taking Caleb Williams, there are also other paths that the Bears can take with 1st pick. On one hand, they can trade down to still be within reach of selecting generational WR talent Marvin Harrison Jr., which would create a lethal WR duo of D.J. Moore and Marvin Harrison Jr for years to come. There are many ways in which the Bears can approach this year’s draft, so the Bears have great options to choose from when using the 1st overall pick.
The Final Verdict
After going through each of these factors, I believe the outcome is obvious: The Bears are going to select Caleb Williams with the 1st overall pick in the NFL draft. Now I do think that while the Bears drafting Caleb Williams would be a good decision, trading down and drafting a guy like Marvin Harrison Jr. is not a bad idea whatsoever. To put this into perspective, every single reporter is saying that the Bears will draft Caleb Williams, and the odds for Justin Fields next team is the Atlanta Falcons. At this point, it is not a matter of if, but it is absolutely a matter of when the Bears are drafting Caleb Williams, which will be official once the Bears trade Justin Fields, which can happen soon. I do believe however, that if the Bears won against the Packers in Week 18 to eliminate them from the playoffs, then Justin Fields’ job in Chicago would be safe. Unless the Bears trade the 1st overall pick, it is currently a waiting game for when Caleb Williams walks the stage on draft night as the future QB of the Chicago Bears, which would be April 25th, 2024.
