Detroit is 1-4 coming off their bye week and has lost three consecutive games. The Lions lost a tight game in week one to the Eagles before winning their only game of the season against the Commanders. Since then, they’ve dropped games to the Vikings, Seahawks, and Patriots.
Dallas is 4-2 after last week’s 17-26 loss to Philadelphia. Prior to the loss, the Cowboys had won four straight games against the Rams, Commanders, Giants, and Bengals. Before the win streak, they’d dropped their season opener to Tampa Bay.
Detroit possessed the most potent offense in the NFL prior to their shutout loss to New England. They’d scored 35 points in three games despite their 1-4 record. The Lions are 25th in team DVOA despite their strong offense.
The Lions are third in the league in scoring despite missing their two best offensive players for large portions of the season. Running back DeAndre Swift and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown are both expected to play this week. Swift was electric in his two full games this season. He racked up 175 total yards in week one and 87 yards in week two. Swift was on his way to another solid showing in week three before exiting with an injury that has kept him out since. Jamaal Williams has been effective in his absence. For the season he’s rushed for 332 yards and 6 touchdowns. They’ll both be major factors against a Dallas defense that has given up 4.4 yards per rush and is 19th in rushing defense.
St. Brown returned prior to the bye week but played sparingly in the blowout loss. He’s been incredible since taking over as a starter last season. Dating back to last season, St. Brown has started 13 games. In those starts, he amassed 85 catches for 869 yards and seven touchdowns. Extrapolated over a full 17-game season, St. Brown would have 111 catches for 1136 yards and nine touchdowns. He’s an upper-echelon receiver who will be much-needed against Dallas’ fourth-ranked pass defense.
The problem the Lions have entering the game is Dak Prescott will be back for the first time since his week 1 after injuring his thumb. Analysis of the Cowboys says this game on the offensive side will be dreadful. Micah Parsons will be the key to the Lions success, likely for the entire game. If they contain him, they win, and I don’t see that happening, however, Dak could be rusty, which definitely will make this game closer than it would have been had he been healthy weeks before.
Lions 21, Cowboys 23