Aaron Rodgers has been the talk of the NFL offseason once again after expressing his desire to be traded from the only team he’s ever known. With the potential for a Rodgers move to New York, speculation is rampant about what it would take for a team to acquire the 39-year-old signal-caller.
Examining the Factors
So, what is the price to acquire the four-time NFL MVP? The answer is sadly not straightforward as there are many factors that play into it, including his potential of a one-and-done, massive contract, and the Jets’ lack of leverage in the situation.
Given Rodgers’ elite level of play he’s sustained throughout his career it’s easy to feel like he is worth multiple high-round picks and players but given the fact Rodgers has seriously considered retirement for consecutive years it’s hard to know if he has more than a couple seasons left in his timeline. As of now, there is no evidence of his game falling off with his age, but it does not seem to be his intention to play until he falls apart. A young team like the Jets can not give up a bulk of their future (multiple picks/players) for just a couple of seasons of the elite QB, the risk to reward is not justifiable.
The NFL cap system can be extremely complicated when you look at it under a microscope, but it can be simplified as well. In this case, if Rodgers was to play one year and retire under his current contract the Jets would pay out north of 59 million for 2023 and nearly 43 million in the dead cap the following years, assuming the Packers do not take on any salary. Massive chunks that would seriously hurt the Jets in the short term. If Aaron Rodgers plays past one year then the Jets would only be due for about $15 million in 2023. And after that, the numbers can always be pushed further and restructured.
The negotiations between the Packers and Jets seemed to be a tug-of-war with stops and starts. This game of leverage is a hard one to decipher, the Jets have an unsustainable QB room with a roster that is ready to start winning. The free agent class was once full with fallback options like Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppalo, but with time those doors closed, making Aaron Rodgers basically forced for the front office. In conjunction, the last thing the Jets fanbase can learn is that the trade fell through, they can’t take much more of the torture of mediocrity. The thing the Jets do have on their side is Aaron Rodgers, the thing that can drop the Packers’ asking price is their desire to trade Rodgers, giving him the final respect of granting his trade request, as we have no reason that Rodgers would simply sit out if he can’t be traded.
Past Trades involving Hall of Fame Quarterbacks – Brett Favre Trade to the Jets:
In August 2008, after a brief retirement, Brett Favre was traded from the Green Bay Packers to the New York Jets in exchange for a conditional 4th-round draft pick. The Jets hoped Favre could provide a boost to their offense, but the team finished with a disappointing 9-7 record and missed the playoffs. Favre played just one season with the Jets before being released (due to the fact Jets would have owed 3 first-round picks to the Packers if they traded him) and signed with the Minnesota Vikings in 2009.
Montana Trade to Chiefs:
In April 1993, after 13 seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, Joe Montana was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for a first-round draft pick. Montana, who had won four Super Bowls with the 49ers, was traded due to injury concerns and a desire to move forward with younger quarterback Steve Young. Montana played two seasons with the Chiefs, leading them to the AFC Championship game in 1993, before retiring in 1995.
Warren Moon Trade to Vikings:
In March 1994, after 10 seasons with the Houston Oilers, Warren Moon was traded to the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for a third-round draft pick. Moon, a Hall of Fame quarterback, was traded after a contract dispute with the Oilers and tension with head coach Jack Pardee. Moon played four seasons with the Vikings, leading them to two playoff appearances, before retiring after the 1998 season.
Timeline and Trade Prediction:
A trade happening after the 2023 draft is very possible, although one would imagine not exactly what the Jets would like, it is likely something the Packers are looking at doing as there are considerable triggers that take place on April 2nd. Waiting until that date would free up $15.79 million in cap space and result in less dead cap space overall in the future.
Jets receive: Aaron Rodgers
Packers receive: 2nd round pick in 2024 with condition ( turns to 1st round pick if Rodgers plays more than 50% of snaps in 2023), Conditional 4th round pick in 2025 that scales up to a 1st with a super bowl appearance
