The 2023 NFL Draft — which, if you haven’t heard by now, is Thursday, April 27 — is just over a week away. This means that months of speculation will finally come to an end for fans of all 32 teams… or, at least, the 27 teams that have a first-round pick this year.
One of those teams is the Chicago Bears, a team whose top-ten pick and dearth of talent across the board have combined to create a massive question mark in the minds of fans and experts alike. Many names have been floated around, but not all of them are created equally. One player whose name seemingly cannot get untied from Chicago is Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson is a highly talented player, but drafting him ninth overall could spell disaster for the Bears franchise.
Positional Value
Let’s start out with the biggest knock on Robinson: he plays running back, a position that has seen its value drop significantly over the past few years. Sure, talented backs like Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley (more on Barkley later) still provide value. Yet production at the position can seemingly come from anywhere; last season alone, five players who were originally drafted in the fourth round or later rushed for over a thousand yards.
In addition, drafting a running back in the first round, like any other position, is not a surefire play. From 2010 and 2018, 15 backs were drafted in the first round. Of those players, only five — Mark Ingram, Doug Martin, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliot and Christian McCaffrey — were re-signed by the teams that drafted them at the end of their rookie deals. Saquon Barkley could soon join that list, but the other two first-round backs from his draft class, Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel, have already been let go by the Seahawks and Patriots, respectively.
Drafting a back in the first round, especially in the top ten, does not provide a good return on investment, even if that player ends up being good. While Bijan Robinson is a highly-talented prospect, his position simply is not valued in the modern NFL.
Current Stock at the Position
The Bears are slated to use a committee of Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman out of the backfield this season. Those players aren’t exactly household names, and neither is considered a true three-down back like Bijan Robinson. However, both have been productive players at the NFL level — Foreman ran for nearly 1,000 yards for the Panthers this season despite only starting nine games, and Herbert has averaged five yards per carry in his career thus far.
Bijan Robinson is clearly more talented than the two primary backs currently on Chicago’s roster. But time and time again, NFL teams have proven that utilizing a committee of two or more serviceable backs is an effective method of offense. The Bears are no exception; drafting Robinson would be a splurge on an unnecessary luxury.
Other Needs
Despite playing a relatively unimportant position, Bijan Robinson is still a highly talented player; he is arguably the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley (though Barkley was the far superior college player). For a team that seemingly has very little needs, such as the Philadelphia Eagles, adding Robinson as a luxury pick makes sense.
The Chicago Bears, however, are far from this position. The Bears had arguably the league’s worst roster last season. While some offseason signings and the trade for wide receiver DJ Moore filled some holes on the team, there are still plenty of needs to fulfill.
Specifically, the Bears have a dire lack of talent in the trenches; the team lacks starting-caliber players at offensive tackle and all over the defensive line. At pick nine, top edge rusher Will Anderson (Alabama) will, in all likelihood, be unavailable. However, a lack of consensus surrounding virtually every other non-quarterback in the draft means that the possibilities at the ninth pick are nearly endless. Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, arguably the most talented player in the class, could fall due to personal issues. Offensive tackles like Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State) and Darnell Wright (Tennessee) will likely still be on the board. Passing on high-quality players at dire needs for a running back would be a grave mistake.
Proponents of drafting Robinson, for the Bears or otherwise, argue that the Texas product is one of the most talented players in a draft class that lacks high-end talent. This is, for the most part, true: the non-quarterbacks at the top of the class feel underwhelming compared to previous years. The Bears, however, do not have the luxury of being picky: as Chicago tries to trudge on through its rebuild, the team needs to start accumulating talented young players at key positions.
Bijan Robinson is an incredibly talented player, and the team that drafts him will immediately gain a skilled playmaker. Still, the former Longhorn plays a relatively unimportant position, and the Bears must use their pick to address a more pressing roster need.
