The Minnesota Vikings have signed Marcus Davenport to a one year $13 million dollar contract. This deal gives the former Saint a chance to prove himself given his high potential but low sack total while also giving the Vikings a chance to retain Davenport for future seasons if he is effective in the 2023 season. Davenport is a 26 year old edge rusher from the University of Texas San Antonio. The 6’6 265 lb defensive end is by all means an athletic freak. With a 4.58 40 yard dash time and a 10’4 foot broad jump, Davenport finished with a Relative Athletic Score of 9.67 out of 10 putting him in the elite echelon of draft prospects prior to his rookie year in 2018.
Davenport was selected in the 1st round of the 2018 draft at 14th overall. This high selection came at a price for the New Orleans Saints who traded two future first round picks in order to select him. This was primarily due to his elite physical tools, particularly his size and speed combination. Throughout Davenport’s tenure with the Saints, he showed flashes of elite edge play but was always held back by injuries. Davenport spent much of his five years with the Saints on the injury report with a pretty sizable list accrued over the years.
While Davenport had his fair share of medical struggles throughout his Saints tenure, Davenport’s production when on the field has been impressive given his $13 million price tag for the Vikings.
It is difficult to quantify just how impactful a dominant edge rusher can be. Whether it be a pressure forcing the quarterback into making a bad play, a game changing strip sack or a constant movement of the quarterback’s pocket, the impact is difficult to replicate. For this reason, edge rushers have quickly become a premium position both in terms of draft capital allocated and dollars spent in signing or retaining them. For reference, both the number one and number two overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft were used to select an edge rusher. And in regards to contract value, Myles Garrett signed a 5 year $125 million deal in 2020 that would’ve broken the NFL record for largest contract for any position in 2017. That is why obtaining surplus value on the edge rusher position can be one of the biggest competitive advantages in the entire sport of football. Enter Marcus Davenport…
Before going any further, a disclaimer is worth mentioning. Sacks are overrated. While a sack can have a profound impact on the outcome of a game, a high sack total does not equal a good pass rusher and a low sack total does not equal a bad one. For this reason, while some may look at Davenport’s measly half a sack last season and question the value of paying this player $15 million, when digging deeper into the numbers Davenport’s talent begins to shine through. Another disclaimer, while Davenport signed a one year $13 million contract, his cap hit for the 2023 season is set at $5.96 million for this year. Now for a bit of explaining behind the methodology of each chart. The first chart looks at the 30 highest cap hits in 2023 for the “edge position” according to Spotrac. The pass rush win rate according to PFF in 2022 is then displayed for each player in the top 30 cap hit while also including Marcus Davenport to compare his production versus his price. Because the list only includes the top 30 in cap hits, expect to see next to no rookie contracts so that explains the lack of Micah Parsons (rest assured he had an incredibly high pass rush win rate) and the list only includes “edge rushers” according to Spotrac so that explains the lack of Aaron Donald (rest assured he also had an incredibly high pass rush win rate). The data then sorts each point by name and has each player’s team color as the point.
A few things quickly jump out, first being the company Davenport shares. Davenport is in the same area as Maxx Crosby, Danielle Hunter, Dexter Lawrence II and Randy Gregory. All are Pro bowl level players. Davenport also has a higher pass rush win percentage than Matthew Judon who finished the year with 15 sacks. The purpose this chart serves is to show just how impactful certain players can be without filling up the traditional stat sheet. This lack of traditional statistical production can cause players such as Davenport to have a cheaper price tag in the open market than the Von Millers of the world who signed a six year $120 million dollar contract with $51 million guaranteed. While players are obviously asked to do more than pass rush, being elite at such a valuable trait is a luxury many teams cannot afford. By signing Marcus Davenport, the Vikings pair Davenport and Danielle Hunter (another impressive entry on this chart) together to form a pretty impressive edge duo. Pro Football Focus includes another statistical metric in their evaluation of edge talent and an analysis of Davenport’s performance in this metric is further proof of this signing being one of the best in free agency.
A few takeaways from this chart. First being the strong correlation between pass rush win rate and pass rush grade. This is intuitive based on the fact that winning at a high rate normally means the player is doing a good job. Below shows the corollary relationship between the two with a R² for all of you statistics nerds. For everyone else, an R² pretty much means the closer the value is to 1 the more correlated the two values are.
Posting a PFF pass rush grade of 75.0 puts Davenport in a similar category to Randy Gregory, Dexter Lawrence II and once again teammate Danielle Hunter. All for the cap hit this season of less than $6 million. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has a strong background in economics. Many of you high school and college students know the definition of economics. According to Khan Academy “Economics is the study of how individuals and societies choose to allocate scarce resources, why they choose to allocate them that way, and the consequences of those decisions.” Marcus Davenport is a 6’6 example of Adofo-Mensah’s view on team building. Davenport serves as the perfect way for the Vikings to properly allocate their resources to acquire the production they desire from the edge position.
Another hidden value behind the Davenport signing is the potential for a re-sign. Davenport clearly accepted this contract as a prove it deal given his lack of traditional statistical production. The Vikings have positioned themselves to make one of several potential moves. If Davenport is lackluster in his year in purple, the Vikings can simply choose to let him go. But if he does well, then the Vikings already have him in the building, familiar with the training staff, the coaches and the Minnesota area. The potential to keep the 26 year old under contract for years to come has made this one year contract an absolute win for the Vikings. While Davenport is certainly a minor risk due to his injury history, the gamble the Vikings took this off-season is one of the best in recent memory.
