The Elimination of the QB Middle Class: An Economics Lesson on Quarterback Contracts and how it Impacts the Vikings

It seems like every year a quarterback signs some sort of record breaking extension that blows the minds of everyone. Ultra talented quarterbacks being paid generation-altering money. This off-season there are a handful of quarterbacks looking to sign an extension. Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones. All ELITE quarterbacks. All joking aside, one of these is not like the other, but will more than likely be paid like one. With the new groundbreaking contract with New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, largely due to his performance against the Vikings in the playoffs, the elimination of the quarterback middle class is all but upon us. There exists a mighty fine line between the Marcus Mariotas of the world and the soon to be Daniel Jones of the world. Seemingly one playoff game can result in a difference between a 2 million dollar annual salary and a 40 million dollar annual salary. So why is this happening?

To start, let’s look at some recent quarterback extensions to gauge the difference we are talking about.

2022

• Deshaun Watson – 5 years / $230 million (fully guaranteed)
• Aaron Rodgers – 3 years / $150.8 million ($101.5 million guaranteed)
• Matthew Stafford – 4 years / $160 million ($130 million guaranteed)
• Kirk Cousins – 1 year / $35 million (fully guaranteed)
• Derek Carr – 3 years / $121.5 million ($24.9 million guaranteed)
• Russell Wilson – 5 years / $242.6 million ($160 million guaranteed)

It seems nearly every top 20 quarterback who is not currently on their rookie deal is either signing a massive contract or is on the precipice of signing a massive contract. Quarterbacks are the most premium position in sports and because of that, the difference between their pay and the pay of the surrounding makeup of a team is often stark.

Now back to Daniel Jones, why are the New York Giants willing to pay Jones such a large contract? The answer is pretty obvious. Finding a quarterback is very difficult. When analyzing the quarterbacks drafted over the past five seasons, the success rate on quarterbacks not taken high can be very low. For this reason, teams often do what they can to hold onto the quarterback they are familiar with. In the eyes of a team’s owner, Daniel Jones is a known commodity, a rookie quarterback is a penny stock. Ownership tends to steer teams in the risk averse direction.

You may have spotted one big difference between the contract of Derek Carr and the other quarterbacks extended last off-season. That difference lies in the guarantees. While the likes of Wilson and Watson are being paid upwards of $150 million in guarantees, Derek Carr’s contract only features $25 million in guarantees. This difference may be the hidden quarterback “middle class” because while Derek Carr’s contract has an annual average value of roughly $40 million, the Raiders can and did get rid of his contract when the situation between the two parties went sideways. For this reason, expect players like Daniel Jones, who while being talented did only throw 15 touchdowns this year, to see similar contracts. High average annual value with low guarantees seem to be the future of mid tier quarterbacks.

So how does this relate to the Vikings? Well to put it frankly, Kirk Cousins’ agent has consistently won contract negotiations with the Vikings for a number of years now. While there is no denying Cousins’ talent as a quarterback, every dollar of every year he has been under contract since joining Minnesota in 2018 has been fully guaranteed. Let’s go over the years Cousins has been under center in purple and their respective cap hits.

• 2018 – $24,000,000
• 2019 – $29,000,000
• 2020 – $21,000,000
• 2021- $31,166,666
• 2022 – $31,416,668
• 2023 – $36,250,000

While certainly being a talented player, Cousins’ consistent high ranking cap hits have made it difficult to pursue talented free agents and extend players. Once again this year the Vikings find themselves struggling to be cap compliant, an annual tradition post Cousins signing. While Cousins’ contract is far from cheap, it is worth exploring the remaining league quarterbacks and their cap hits and how that affects their team’s ability to win.

There appears to be a few groups of players above, so it’s best to discuss the groups based on the quadrant they are in. Starting in the top right quadrant and following a C shape for the later quadrants.

Quadrant 1

In quadrant 1 we have the expensive, winning quarterbacks. This quadrant features few names but probably names easily recognized by NFC North fans and those who go to Silver Dollar City in the summer. We have Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Patrick Mahomes. While Goff and Cousins are present, there are two caveats worth noting for both players. The Vikings were significant beneficiaries of variance this season. With both a negative point differential and being 11-0 in one score games, it is highly unlikely to replicate these results and that is worth noting for the purposes of the chart. For Jared Goff, the Lions have a roster with a pretty sizeable level of talent. While this can partially be credited towards the high draft picks the Lions have had due to poor records in the past, a stellar set of recent drafts has put the Lions roster in a great place, making his cap hit less effective than some of the other expensive quarterbacks. And of course Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. Highest passer rating of all time, two super bowl wins, two MVP wins. Just an incredible career at the ripe age of 27.

Quadrant 2

In quadrant 2 we have the cheap, winning quarterbacks. This quadrant features two main groups of players, quarterbacks on rookie deals and recently restructured players. While players such as Josh Allen and Dak Prescott have signed pretty sizable extensions, their contracts have been restructured for this season allowing their teams to fill out their roster with players. Moves like this certainly impact their team’s financial health in the years to come but the flexibility of their contracts is a luxury not present in the short, iron-clad deals made between Cousins and the Vikings. Meanwhile, the rookie deals littered throughout this quadrant work to show just how effective they can be. Just looking towards the top of the quadrant includes the likes of Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Daniel Jones, and Justin Herbert all of which have made the playoffs this past season and three of which played in championship weekend in the 2022 season. The only exception to the two groups present in this quadrant is Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. Smith was a backup for several seasons who was given a chance to start this season. Smith massively exceeded expectations and played himself into a nice payday next season whether that be with Seattle or another team.

Quadrant 3

In quadrant 3 we have cheap, losing quarterbacks. This quadrant features three main groups of players. Young, unproven rookie deal quarterbacks, temporary solutions for teams trying to find their long term quarterback and unsuccessful veteran quarterbacks who are either restructured or aging. While this may not be an ideal situation for teams, other teams who have elected to sign a “stopgap” quarterback find themselves to be in a potentially advantageous situation for the future. Teams such as the Atlanta Falcons have the #8 overall pick in this year’s draft and have a chance to select a quarterback of the future and allow them to develop under Mariota or another cheap veteran. Contrast this with teams like the Cleveland Browns who now have to pay Deshaun Watson over $40 million every season from now until 2026. While this quadrant is far from ideal, it could be worse.

Quadrant 4

Which brings us to quadrant 4 where we have expensive, losing quarterbacks. This quadrant only features one player, Ryan Tannehill but expect the number to grow in the coming seasons. This is a situation all teams look to avoid. The Titans understand the situation they are in and have already selected a quarterback in Malik Willis last season.

So what quadrant do you think the Vikings will be in over the next few years? It is worth noting the quarterbacks who played championship weekend this season were either in quadrant 2 or were Patrick Mahomes. For this reason, there seems to be a possibility of the Vikings selecting a quarterback in this year’s draft. While there are many names, all will be a lot cheaper than the cap hits regularly felt by Minnesota over the past few seasons. If the Vikings expect to get rich fast, they can’t expect to rely on known commodities when those known commodities are repeatedly hurting their team’s ability to compete. Maybe it’s time for the Vikings to try their luck in penny stocks. For all things Vikings and more, keep it right here on NFCNorthReport.com