The Goal of Trading Down
Every organization’s goal in the NFL Draft is to find high level talent, but the teams with the most drafting success are able to do so for great value. Trading up and trading down have been frequently used drafting tactics which reflect very different mindsets. Teams that trade up usually have their eyes set on a specific prospect, and are confident that the player will be worth the assets that they are trading. On the other hand, teams that trade down typically highlight a short range of draft positions where they feel the talent is very strong for the value. The primary difference between these two strategies is that the outcome of trading up is very well-known whereas there are a multitude of possibilities for teams that trade down. A team that trades up has full control of their fate while a team that trades down has to hope the board falls in their favor. So why do teams risk trading down, and has it actually paid off? These are questions many Minnesota Vikings fans have been hoping to answer following the 2022 NFL Draft. Under newly hired General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the Vikings’ front office demonstrated their desire to shuffle through the draft order and try to find the best value picks at various points in the draft. The Vikings totaled six trades, highlighted by an unprecedented trade down in the first round with the division rival Detroit Lions. Minnesota moved down twenty spots in the first round from Pick 12 to Pick 32, where they selected Georgia safety Lewis Cine, allowing themselves to gather draft capital which would be utilized in trades later in the draft. Although it is currently impossible to tell whether or not this high risk move was beneficial, it could foreshadow a new approach taken by the Vikings’ front office in the draft. Every draft class is different, but the first-year general manager Adofo-Mensah was not hesitant to strike deals with other general managers. Trading down to acquire more picks and select players for better value could very well be the blueprint for success for this new regime. But until the rookies take the field, it will be impossible to tell if this method will truly be successful.A Look At Recent Trade Downs
Recent history can give a better sense of the likelihood of success of significant trade downs in the draft. With the Vikings trading down twenty spots in 2022, it is important to focus on trade downs of several draft positions because they involve a higher element of risk. The following chart highlights the 25 draft day trade downs in the 2010s in which the team trading down moved at least five spots lower and still held a first round pick. Instead of evaluating which team won each trade, the success of a trade down is better shown through the player who the team traded down for. Any first round trade down has the end goal of selecting a franchise player even after trading down. Other components of trade downs, such as which player was selected by the team trading up, which players were selected between the trade up pick and the trade down pick, and which players were selected with the picks given to the team trading down, can also have some impact on the success of such a gutsy move. Considering these factors, each of these trade downs was given a rating from 1 to 5. Here is a breakdown of the rating system: 1 – A very bad trade down which the team received no benefit from 2 – A bad trade down which the team received only little benefit from 3 – A decent trade down which the team received meaningful benefit from 4 – A good trade down which the team received strong benefit from 5 – A very good trade down which the team received extreme benefit from * – another trade used to acquire pick ^ – player already in the league
A Deeper Look Into the Data
It must be recognized that the Vikings trade down in 2022 was highly abnormal. Moving twenty picks down in the first round is nearly unheard of. As the magnitude of the trade down increases, so does the level of risk. The table above highlights all trade downs of five picks or more. But how have trade downs fared when there is an even higher level or risk? The data can be filtered to focus on trade downs in which the team originally moves down more than ten picks. Here are the five trade downs where this has been the case: * – another trade used to acquire pick