In football, Isolating one player’s performance and determining their value to a team is an extremely difficult task. This is why you see terrible contracts get signed all over the league. Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson signed contracts worth over $200 million and proceeded to fall outside the top 10 in most quarterback performance metrics this past season. Both players had played at top 5 levels with their previous teams and seemingly deserved the money they were given. However, the 2022 NFL season shows just how dangerous quarterback contracts can be. Were Watson and Wilson products of their systems in Houston and Seattle, respectively? Or did we witness two quarterbacks fall off a cliff in terms of performance? There are so many different factors that go into the success of a quarterback. The notion that a quarterback can be plugged into an offense and expect playoff-caliber performance is outlandish. The contracts that Watson and Wilson seem to be affecting the quarterback market all around the league this offseason.
Looking Around the League
This most recent postseason featured a plethora of quarterbacks that were drafted by the team they were playing for. Only the Vikings, Buccaneers, and Seahawks started a quarterback that they did not draft (technically Tyler Huntley was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Ravens). This means that finding a quarterback through the draft is, typically, the fastest route to success. Aside from Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, and Dak Prescott, all of the signal callers were top-ten picks. This means that a team either has to be really good at drafting quarterbacks after the first round or they have to own a high draft pick. Of course, there are going to be exceptions to every rule, but the proven model shows tanking for a top-ten pick is vital to secure a franchise quarterback.
We just saw Daniel Jones secure a 4-year $160 million contract from the Giants after going 21-31-1 over his first four years in the league as a starter. His performance this past season, securing his first-ever playoff win, played a huge role in getting his deal. This deal demonstrates how sticking with a middle-of-the-pack quarterback that has had flashes of potential is better than spending big on one to come in and pray that they solve the team’s issues. Scheme fit cannot be understated when looking at a team’s quarterback situation.
Scheme fit is the largest part of what is leaving Lamar Jackson out in the cold. While the former MVP may deserve the fully-guaranteed payday he is looking for, teams are scared to take a chance on him because of what happened with Watson and Wilson. The Ravens knew that another team would have to change their whole scheme to succeed with Jackson at quarterback so they can afford to place the non-exclusive franchise tag on him. The price of two first-rounders from a team with a top-ten pick and not having to deal will be sufficient for the Ravens. That said, expect Lamar Jackson to be playing for Baltimore in 2023 on the non-exclusive franchise tag.
Going against the grain is the New Orleans Saints who, once again, are doing some cap space magic by signing Derek Carr to a 4-year $150 million deal. This contract will be far less harmful than Watson’s or Wilson’s, however, it was far from the right move for the Saints. The middling team signed Carr in a desperate attempt to stay relevant rather than go into full rebuild mode. While they may be able to sneak into the playoffs next year as a longshot, waiting to find their franchise quarterback in the draft would be far more promising for their long-term future.
Aaron Rodgers is holding the NFL in suspense as he waits to make his decision. If he is looking to win, the Packers are his best place to do that. Familiar with the system and with a decent roster at his disposal he could still find success in Green Bay. According to a lot of rumors, it sounds like the New York Jets are very interested in acquiring the 39-year-old quarterback. The Jets should be wary of trading for Rodgers. Though he is one of the all-time greats at quarterback, the Jets have to do their homework to ensure that Rodgers is the right guy to lead their team in 2023. Plugging in a quarterback to a roster that is missing one, does not always go well. While the Jets do not want a repeat of Zach Wilson by drafting a rookie quarterback this year, they should be considering all options.
What does this mean for the Vikings?
Kirk Cousins’ future with the team has been in question this off-season. With Eric Kendricks’ release this week and rumors swirling about an Adam Thielen release, it feels like nobody is safe unless your name is Justin Jefferson. Fans are ready to see a change at quarterback because they feel this roster is better than a first-round playoff exit and Cousins is a big part of what is holding the team back. While that may or may not be true, plugging in a new quarterback, whatever the price tag, likely will not produce the kind of results fans want.
Instead of trading or cutting Cousins, the Vikings should let 2023 be a “prove-it” year for him. Let him play out his contract and evaluate whether he truly can lead the team to a Super Bowl ring. His current contract makes it tough to move on this season and even if the team did move on, replacing Cousins would be a tall task. Targeting a quarterback like Hendon Hooker or Tanner McKee on day two of the draft and letting him develop for a year behind Cousins would be the best-case scenario. However, the chances of a day-two quarterback being the franchise quarterback the Vikings need are slim. Targeting Lamar Jackson in free agency next year, if he does not reach a long-term deal this season, could be perfect even though a lot of different schematic pieces would have to come together on the offensive side of the ball.
The quarterback market is always changing in the NFL and the Vikings seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. Without trading up in the draft in the next couple of years, it does not seem like the Vikings have a good avenue to find their quarterback of the future. The Vikings might be in store for a couple of years of painful mediocrity. Of course, winning a Super Bowl ring is not an exact science and there are plenty of paths to get there. Vikings fans just have to hope that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell have the blueprint for a Lombardi.
