The Bears currently hold the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, since they have the second-worst win percentage in the league when this article is being written. However, there are still five weeks left in the regular season for the Bears and the rest of the NFL.
As a result, the Bears’ draft pick may move from being the No. 2 pick to almost anywhere else in the draft up until the No. 18 overall pick. (Those who will not compete in the NFL playoffs are handed the top 18 draft picks; the Bears were eliminated from playoff contention this past Sunday.)
The Bears have an overwhelmingly high chance of getting a pick in the top ten draft picks, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) (99.1 percent). Additionally, they estimate that the Bears have an 85.7 percent chance of finishing in the top five, but just a 3.5 percent chance of being selected first.
They determined the Bears’ average draft position of 3.7 using the same metric for all significant measurements. That places third-lowest, after the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions (acquired from the Los Angeles Rams).
Consider the following scenarios for the Bears’ draft position:
The lowest draft pick the Bears may get if they lose is the third overall pick. As of this writing, the Bears are one of three teams with three victories (Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos). The Bears must finish with fewer victories than the Broncos and Rams in order to secure the No. 2 overall pick. The strength of the schedule serves as a tie-breaker, so if the Bears and either of those teams tie, they will forfeit the pick. Unfortunately, among all projected non-playoff teams, the Bears’ strength of schedule is the strongest.
The worst draft pick the Bears might get is No. 7, even if they win one of the final four games. This is because one team must have a worse record than 4-13 in this situation because the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints face each other in the last week of the regular season. Again, given their superior strength of schedule, the Bears would give up a higher choice in this scenario to the other four-win teams.
The Bears eventually win three more games in this scenario. The key is that the Bears play with fire for each victory they achieve the rest of the way. A victory would improve their record, maybe making their draft pick worse. However, because they have the toughest schedule, the Bears can’t win any tiebreakers against teams in the opposite draft position because they would lose each one.
There isn’t much more to do this season now that the Bears have been formally ruled out of the playoffs. The organization has a lot of work to do this offseason in free agency and the draft even if Justin Fields has established himself as the team’s starting quarterback. The fact that the team already has a quarterback gives them a lot of potential negotiating power with regard to their draft position in a quarterback-heavy draft.
The only option left is to lose and pray that the teams below them tack on meaningless victories.
