Since Brian Gutekunst has taken over as GM of the Green Bay Packers, he has had a shaky track record with drafting pass catchers. From 2018 up until now, Gute has drafted 7 wide receivers and 2 tight ends, with none of them in the first round. Looking at their height, weight, and 40-yard time, and RAS score we can deduce who are the likely targets for Gute and the Packers front office in the 2023 draft.
Prototypical Builds
Looking back at the previous 5 drafts, the Packers have been consistent in two things. Waiting to draft any receiving threat until mid-round picks, and drafting physically larger and more athletic guys. The average height and weight of a wide receiver are 6’2 and 205 lbs. The average 40-yard dash and RAS score are 4.46 seconds and 8.17 out of 10. For tight ends, they had an average height and weight of 6’3 and 247 lbs. Average 40-yard dashes and RAS scores were 4.74 seconds and 6.83 out of 10. The tight-end sample was small, only having 2 prospects, so the averages are a little rough but can still give us good guidelines. The wide receiver group had a few things stand out, with Amari Rodgers having the lowest height and RAS score out of the group. He also had the second-slowest 40-yard dash, with J’Mon Moore in dead last by a mile. It’s noticeable how the two worst receivers in this group strayed away from the typical trends of Gute’s drafting. Maybe there’s some kind of correlation here, but more testing would need to be done. Using the data collected, we can look at the possible prospects the Packers could target in the draft.
Wide Receivers
Out of the 37 receivers with a RAS score above 8, I was able to reduce that number down to 15. I removed prospects based on height, weight, and 40-yard dash time compared to the average of the 7 Packers receivers. Then, I ranked them based on what round they could possibly be drafted in to see what options the Packers have each day. As you can see in the table below, there aren’t many early-round options that fit the Packers draft history. If they want another elite receiving threat alongside Watson and Doubs, they need to be aggressive and get JSN. There are still some extremely solid receivers later in the draft, especially Andrei Iosivas. He should for sure be the main guy they target in the fourth/fifth round, as adding an MVS type player to the wide receiver room. Prospects like Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Jalin Hyatt, and Josh Downs are all off the table because of their size and RAS scores. Quentin Johnston is another guy that could’ve been here, but due to Christian Watson having a similar play style it felt redundant to have a worse version of him on the team. Without looking at Christian Watson, Quentin Johnston would be the holy grail of possible receivers, with a RAS score of 9.60 and great measurables that fit the mold of a Green Bay wide receiver.
Tight Ends
Out of the 33 eligible tight ends with a RAS above 5, I landed on 10 possible prospects the Packers could look at. Out of the 10, only 4 are guaranteed to even be drafted. Obviously, the best prospect out of this group is without a doubt Michael Mayer, but due to the Packers owning only one first-round pick, it seems unlikely that they can get him. Another guy who is an intriguing prospect is Tucker Kraft, who could fit the Packers scheme pretty well along with Mayer. Kraft’s only being projected in the third makes it a reasonable investment for our future tight end. I feel that Josh Whyle is also a great option for us, where he can be utilized more as a receiving threat rather than a traditional blocker. Notable tight ends not on here are Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Luke Musgrave, and Luke Schoonmaker because of size, fit, and RAS score. Darnell Washington is a player most Packer fans want them to draft, but I don’t see it happening due to how much of an outlier he is compared to the previous tight ends drafted by Green Bay.
Summary
Based on the averages of Brian Gutekunst’s previous draft selections, these are the prospects that have the highest odds of being in the green and gold.
First Round: Jaxon Smith Njigba, Michael Mayer
Second Round: Rashee Rice
Third Round: A.T. Perry, Tucker Kraft, Jonathan Mingo
Fourth Round: Andrei Iosivas, Cameron Latu
Fifth Round: Garett Maag, Bryce Ford-Wheaton
Sixth Round: Josh Whyle, Antoine Green, Matt Landers
Seventh Round: David Durden, Blake Whiteheart, Shedrick Jackson, Elijah Cooks, Jacob Copeland
UDFA: Cody Chrest, Jordan Murray, Brady Russell, Daniel Barker, Chase Cota, Tyler Hunt, Jerome Jackson
